A Model Proposed for the Prediction of Future Sustainable Residence Specifications Using Analytical Network Process

Ayman M. Zakaria Eraqi, Walid Abdul-Hady Shoura

In Egypt, people are unable to determine the qualities of appropriate residence that achieves quality and occupant satisfaction, and contributes to sustainability of residential conglomerations. In general, developing countries lack housing information which can be used to enhance quality of residence. Also, the methods of assessing and identifying the appropriate criteria for future residence quality remain traditional ones that cannot address the multiple, conflicting, overlapping aspects to reach a good decision. This calls for using the Analytical Network Process  (ANP), an effective tool for specifying the relative importance of all factors impacting a specific issue for making an appropriate residential decision. In addition, this method provides results for the decision element impacts network within the decision structure; thus contributing to more understanding of the mechanisms and requirements of residence selection. The proposed decision structure comprises a two-level network: main clusters, main elements, and sub-elements included in the demographic characteristics group, the residence criteria group, the demand parameters group, the supply parameters group, the residence specifications group, and the alternatives group which representing, in total, the decision and specifying the percentage needed for each housing level. Results of the model showed complete capacity in smoothly addressing complexities and overlapping in the decision structure. The decision structure showed that 52% chose luxury residence, 28% chose middle-class residence, and 19.5% chose the economic residence. Mechanisms of decision making were analyzed; particularly in terms of relationship to demographic characteristics and residence specifications. Also, the importance and impact of demand / supply parameters in reaching decision were analyzed.

Keywords

Sustainable Residence Specifications - Supply/ Demand - Decision Making - Prediction - Analytical Network Process (ANP)

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